
Somebody is reading too many blogs written by the wrong people because there have been so many rumors about the impending death of television ever since people began getting the internet in their own homes. The word “convergence” became popular in the 90s and while it isn’t being used all that much anymore, a lot of ink and many more electrons have been spent on how everyone is watching more online video than TV programs.
As George Bernard Shaw might say, Poppycock and balderdash.
The latest Nielsen reports indicate that people of all ages are watching more television rather than less. In Q4 2008 monthly hours for traditional television viewing averages at 151, with age variances. This is a 3.4% increase Q4 2007. DVR playback time has also increased a whopping 24% but…. only from 5.5 to 7.2 hours. Internet video streaming and mobile device viewing are even smaller percentages of the total:
**Includes home and work.
Traditional television viewing – live as it airs – hasn’t died and it won’t as long as there are programs that demand immediate or ongoing attention. Recent Nielsen reports point to the low DVR playback rates of competition programs, sports, and news and Spanish-language novelas, the latter of which claims only 2% of its viewers via DVR. If all these viewers were migrating to their computer screens to watch their programs, there would be far fewer large screens being sold and a substantial decline in cable and satellite penetration.
This is also not happening due to media multi-tasking and what Mike Bloxham of Ball State University calls “platform promiscuity.” People are using the different screen media for different content and only 3% of all online adults would want to disconnect their cable or satellite services to watch video exclusively online. At this time you can’t browse the internet and watch a Frasier episode on the same screen; those who remember WebTV will recall how slow the experience was. How much better is it to surf on a separate screen for information while watching Discovery’s Shark Week on one’s TV screen which would be larger and probably have better speakers?
Computers and mobile devices are typically used for video snacks like YouTube clips, news, and sports updates rather than entire entrees like full TV episodes or movies. According to comScore, mobile devices are often used during otherwise idle time spent away from home: 25% of users view content in between other daily activities, like commuting or standing on line at the post office. Long-form viewing is not currently practical due to the inability to pause and resume, but why would anyone prefer to watch a movie in 5 or more segments during the course of the day?
Event films and major sports events like the Super Bowl will never be viewed this way. Super Bowl and Oscar parties are now a well-established American tradition and some classic films will still be shown on their regular holiday schedules each year for family viewing. Media Nerd isn’t religious, but would regard viewing The Ten Commandments on a tiny screen as nothing short of media sacrilege.
So the next time you read about the imminent death of commercial television in relation to any other media use, ask yourself who and what you’re reading. Unless the article is quoting actual statistics by reputable researchers, regard it as the author’s opinion… or wishful thinking. Movies didn’t die when television arrived on the scene; they merely evolved to better differentiate themselves and their related experiences. Television is now facing that challenge and it has too much invested to not meet it.




